Analyst Video Conferences and Webinars

2021 Webinars

November 15, 2021
Telcos - Board Man Gets Way: What's Next?

In this 34-minute webinar, Desmond covered:
•    Is Edward right? Yes, Rogers has underperformed, but was it CEO Joe Natale’s fault?
•    Grading Joe Natale: Evaluating Rogers’ Unlimited strategy, capital allocation and non-core assets. What are the risks in acquiring Shaw?
•    Reading between the lines: What was the disagreement within Rogers that led to the board fight?
•    Top Picks in the sector.

See also the slides for his presentation.

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November 2, 2021
Suncor Energy versus Imperial Oil: Was Q3 an Inflection Point? 

In this 8-minute webinar, Jeff discusses:
•    Why SU has underperformed IMO over the last year;
•    Why SU outperformed IMO after Q3 results last week;
•    Differentials: Heavy oil differentials have widened while light crude differentials have narrowed. Why this is good for SU but not IMO.
•    Downstream: Gas stations and utilization drives SU’s outperformance.
•    Shareholder yield comparison: Our forecast is for higher shareholder yields from SU, yet it is trading at a discount.

See also the slides for his presentation. 

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October 28, 2021
Supply Chain Disruption Winners: TFII, CP

In this 11-minute webinar, Dan and Anthony covered:
•    Stress in the supply chain: Are there signs that it is easing up? Why companies will build more resiliency into their supply chains with higher, more distributed inventories. 
•    Why TFI International and CP Railway will benefit. 

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October 25, 2021
Rogers: Big Picture Thinking on Boardroom Turbulence

In this 13-minute video conference, Anthony and Desmond covered:
•    What is Edward Rogers thinking? Desmond reads between the lines of Edward’s statements to understand his motivations
•    What’s next for Rogers’ management? Desmond evaluates CEO Joe Natale’s performance and whether criticism is warranted.
•    How does this play out, and what does this mean for the stock?

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October 5, 2021
Canadian Autos Slides: Chipping Out of the Rough

Dan has put together a four-minute webinar on the auto sector chip shortage. He discussed:
•    New vehicle inventories are at record lows: How bad is it?
•    A tale of two chip disruptions: Where are bottlenecks? 
•    Steering auto back on track: Production rates and normalized demand.

Extended slide deck: Chipping Out of the Rough - slides

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September 22, 2021
Veritas Best Ideas: Just The Essentials

The markets are at a new stage. As the euphoria of the re-opening trade wanes, we face the realities of a potential fourth wave, as our supply chains remain a mess and inflation looms. Our award-winning analysts share their top picks and pans to close out 2021 in telcos, technology, financial services, retail, energy, utilities, transportation, industrials and REITs.

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September 14, 2021
Our Best Picks To Take Advantage of Natural Gas Prices
With Jeff Craig

In this 7-minute video conference, Anthony and Jeff discuss:
•    Natural gas prices: Supply and demand picture for North America and Europe. 
•    Natural gas and the oil sands: What the natural gas picture means for the oil sands producers.
•    Our top gas pick. 

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September 9, 2021
Telcos: Wireless Back to School Fundamentals
With Desmond Lau

In this 30-minute webinar, Desmond discussed:
•    Limitations of free cash flow: All telco definitions exclude spectrum auction spending since those amounts are excluded from capital expenditures. However, $9 billion, $7 billion and $3 billion have been spent on spectrum by RCI, T and BCE, respectively, in roughly the past decade. 
•    Incremental wireless Return on Invested Capital: Comparing the three incumbents.
•    Networks: RCI.B has spent the most, but its network still ranks lower than BCE and T. 
•    Device financing: Adoptions rates, ARPU growth, margins and churn impact, and accounting disclosure explained;
•    Which telco is best in class

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September 1, 2021
Canadian Rails - CP Pulls Ahead
With Dan Fong

In this 6-minute video conference, Anthony and Dan discuss:
•    Canadian National Railway’s options: Terminate the merger, appeal or proceed without a trust? “I went through the STB’s decision, and the tone of their rationale was extremely aggressive and very deliberate.”
•    Canadian Pacific Railway’s options: “I think CP is in a win-win situation..”

Full reports:
•    CP: A Win-Win Situation
•    Canadian Rails: A Twist in the Track - CNR Denied; CP Re-Engages

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July 28, 2021
Canadian Insurance: Why we favour MFC and SLF over GWO
With Nigel D'Souza

In this 8-minute video conference, Anthony and Nigel discuss:
•    Great West Lifeco: A brief overview of Nigel’s recent initiation on GWO (Betting on Synergies) – a walk through the catalysts and the risks.
•    Manulife and Sunlife: Near-term risk of exposure to Covid variants in Asia and longer-term upside (Earnings Beta to Delta Variant).

Full reports:
•    Betting on Synergies
•    Canadian Lifecos: Earnings Beta to Delta Variant

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July 22, 2021
Krispy Kreme's Sugar High: Understanding its positioning in the restaurant industry
With Kathleen Wong and Jacob Liu

In this 15-minute video, Kathleen and Jacob discuss:
•    Rich valuation: M&A multiples, EBITDA and FCF yield comparisons;
•    Store economics: Franchise acquisitions will be margin dilutive;
•    De-franchising strategy: Top-line growth from 2016 to 2020 was primarily attributable to franchise acquisitions;
•    Market penetration: Execution risk in new markets and stiff competition.
•    Accounting: Supply-chain financing conceals leverage.
•    Stock price: A question about where the stock should be trading.

Full report:
Krispy Kreme's IPO -Sugar High

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June 28, 2021
What To Consider As Oil Stays Elevated
With Jeff Craig

In this 9-minute video conference, Anthony and Jeff discuss:
•    Why the supermajors will divest their oil sands projects;
•    The advantage of a fully Canadian-owned oil sands;
•    What deals could be on the table; 
•    The impact of inflation on the oil and gas industry and where investors can find inflation relief.

Full reports:
•    Flash: Hedging Inflation in Oil and Gas (PSK, TPZ)
•    Climate Policy Creates A Buyer’s Market (CNQ, SU, CVE, IMO)

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June 24, 2021
Dye & Durham: The Jury Is Out
What Should You Do With Management's Intention To Offer?
With Howard Leung

In this 38-minute webinar, Howard covered:
•    Operations: Why DND has a strategic advantage over competitors and can get away with raising prices.
•    The real revenue mix: Why is management so reluctant to disclose revenue mix between business and real estate law? We estimate the revenue share of each business line and the implications of the mix.
•    Discussing synergies: When Dye & Durham makes an acquisition, what revenue and cost synergies do they bake in? We look at past acquisitions as case studies.
•    Sales below zero: Last year, DND reported negative revenues in their UK segment.

Full report: Flash: The Jury's Out

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June 23, 2021
How Much Is A Higher Moat Worth? CNR, KCS
With Dan Fong

In this 9-minute video conference, Anthony and Dan discuss:
•    What the market is missing in the CNR/KCS combination: Building a competitive moat and the Mexican rail opportunity 
•    Can they get the deal done? “Twenty years ago, the U.S. Surface Transportation Board developed a new framework for evaluating class one railroad mergers. The STB is setting a precedent here, so they will be careful and they are going to take their time deliberating. But if you look at it on the surface, in terms of competition, a lot of competition remains.”
•    What should investors do? 

Full report: Expanding the Moat

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June 10, 2021
Brookfield Infrastructure and Brookfield Business Partners: Comparing Inflation Resiliency
With Dimitry Khmelnitsky & Henry Yu 

In this 7-minute video conference, Anthony, Dimitry and Henry discuss:
•    How to frame inflation: What are the input costs, and can companies pass along costs to end consumers? Are contracts tied to indexing? Are consumers willing to pay more? Operating as well as Capex input costs; Foreign exchange effects;
•    Interest rates: Impact on debt service costs, asset and liability values, and discount rates; Impact on market’s perceived value;
•    Inflation resiliency: BIP’s operations are more resilient to inflation than BBU; however, BIP’s valuation is higher and therefore more vulnerable. 

Full report: BIP & BBU: Thinking About Inflation

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June 10, 2021
REITs OUTLOOK | Return To the Office, Lease Obligations and Inflation 
With Howard Leung

In this 14-minute video conference, Anthony and Howard discuss: 
•    Organic growth: The outlook for this year and next for each real estate sector;
•    Return to the office: The push and pull between employees and employers to return to the office; What is happening in other markets that have already opened up;
•    Lease obligations: Comparing the lease obligations for Tech Sector companies before and after the pandemic and why this is so important to the Canadian office REITs outlook;
•    Inflation: Debt ladders and what REIT sectors are most protected from rising interest rates.

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June 7, 2021
Canadian Banks - What To Watch As We Exit The Pandemic 
With Nigel D'Souza

In this 8-minute video conference, Anthony and Nigel discuss:
•    The market’s response to Q2-F21 and what it is looking for next.
•    The loan growth outlook for Canadian versus U.S. banking.
•    Which bank stands to do best when loan growth picks up as we exit lockdowns.
•    Dividends, buybacks and M&A.

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June 2, 2021
A 25% Catch-Up Trade: SU, IMO 
With Jeffrey Craig

In this 6-minute video conference, Anthony and Jeff discuss:
• Why has Imperial Oil (IMO) outperformed Suncor (SU)? How do SU and IMO stack up against one another?
• How do the valuations stack up? “That’s the crux of our thesis here – the dramatic difference in valuations,” Jeff said. “When we issued our report last week, SU was trading at a 40% discount to IMO on both price to cash flow and free cash flow to equity. That’s now 35% after a few good days of trading, but we think that’s a massive discount. While we wouldn’t expect the gap to close 100%, we think there’s probably a 25% catch-up trade.”
• SU’s torque to higher oil prices: At US$60 WTI, SU’s Free Cash Flow climbs 30%, compared to an increase at IMO of 18%.
• Oil prices: “In the mid-US$60s [WTI], it seems like a nice Goldilocks position where things don’t get too hot and these companies can make a lot of money, a lot of free cash flow, [and provide] big dividend raises and huge deleveraging.”

Full report: IMO and SU: Here Comes the Sun

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May 18, 2021
Seeing Through The Glare: A Study of Non-GAAP Metrics in the Residential Solar Industry
With Dimitry Khmelnitsky & Jacob Liu

In this in-depth 60-minute webinar, Dimitry and Jacob discuss our recent report on the U.S. residential solar leasing sector, focusing on the three industry leaders: Sunrun Inc. (RUN), Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NOVA), and SunPower Corporation (SPWR). 
These stocks were down 30% to 40% from peak when our original report was published last month and are down 16% to 27% at the time of the webinar.
 
They discussed:
• Why solar non-GAAP metrics matter
• Industry conditions, economic subsidies and business model: Think of residential solar companies as financing companies.
• Key non-GAAP metric definitions and management’s assumptions: 
• How much of the current share price depends on management’s assumptions.
• Key risks to management’s assumptions.
• Veritas adjustments: Our adjustments versus management’s assumptions
• Alternative ways to assess performance: Revenue yield
• Adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow pitfalls
• Executive compensation



Full report: Blinded by the Light: Highlighting Solar Non-GAAP Risks – NOVA, RUN, SPWR

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April 23, 2021
Solar Industry: Making Sense of Complicated Non-GAAP Metrics
With Dimitry Khmelnitsky & Jacob Liu

In this 10-minute video conference, Anthony, Dimitry and Jacob discuss highlights of our recent report on the U.S. residential solar leasing sector, including three industry leaders: Sunrun Inc. (RUN), Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NOVA), and SunPower Corporation (SPWR).
They discussed:
• Why we stepped across the border to take an in-depth look at this sector: “Analysts are cheerleading, almost competing with each other on who is more bullish on the prospects. So we decided to take a look.”
• Aggressive non-GAAP metrics: Why U.S. GAAP financial statements aren’t very useful for this sector and how this opens the door for management teams to use aggressive non-GAAP metrics.
• Why these are some of the most-complicated non-GAAP metrics that Dimitry has seen in his 15-year career at Veritas.
• Key risks to the non-GAAP metrics:  These include assumptions for zero churn rates and zero default rates over the next 20 to 30 years. 

Full report: Blinded by the Light: Highlighting Solar Non-GAAP Risks – NOVA, RUN, SPWR

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April 22, 2021
What Happens Next in the CNR/CP Bunfight for KCS?
With Dan Fong

In this 10-minute video conference, Anthony and Dan discuss:
• Why KCS is so attractive strategically for both CNR and CP.Which partner will KCS likely align with and why?
• Which bid is likely to receive more regulatory scrutiny?
• Can CP afford to raise its bid? Could another player come in with another bid?

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April 22, 2021
Canadian Oil & Gas – A Quick Walk Through Our Top Picks
With Jeffrey Craig

In this 8-minute video conference, Anthony and Jeff discuss:
• Oil was trading at about negative US$37 a barrel a year ago. What have we learned from the past year as investors?
• A lot has changed in the last few months in the sector. Why are you more optimistic about commodity forecasts for 2021 than previously?
• Top picks in the sector: CNQ, SU, ERF and ARX
• Why should Suncor sell its gas station business, and what is it worth?

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April 19, 2021
Why Overwaitea May Be the Next Domino To Fall
With Kathleen Wong

In this 11-minute video conference, Anthony and Kathleen discuss consolidation trends in the grocery industry and why she thinks George Weston (WN) should pursue a purchase of Overwaitea. They discuss:
• The math on why a purchase of regional-grocery Overwaitea Food Group makes more sense for WN than buybacks or buying out the remaining shares of Loblaw that it doesn’t already own.
• If Overwaitea is for sale, then Loblaw, Metro and Empire would also be interested. How much is Overwaitea worth? Who wins a bidding war and why?

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April 12, 2021
Getting Comfortable With A Complex Beast
With Dimitry Khmelnitsky

In this 14-minute video conference, Anthony and Dimitry discuss our recent initiation on Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) and how Dimitry was able to get comfortable with the complexities of BBU’s operating subsidiaries and the opaqueness of its disclosure.
They discussed:
• What we found when going through the filings of the operating subsidiaries in various jurisdictions around the world;
• Non-GAAP metrics and how to get an accurate picture of sustainable free cash flow;
• Why investors need to evaluate maintenance Capex carefully;
• Which subsidiaries present key risks and why.

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March 26, 2021
REITS: The Reopening Play
With Howard Leung

Howard’s 1-hour STREIT Smarts webinar discussed:
• Interest Rate Risk: With higher bond yields and whispers of inflation, which REITs have the highest exposure to rising rates? 
• (Un)fair Values? COVID disrupted rent collections and growth. Did any trusts try to get around that by changing methodologies or messing with cap rates?
• The Fate of Offices: The economy is set to reopen but may not include office tenants. What does that mean to landlords?

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March 26, 2021
What the Street is missing on bank earnings
With Nigel D'Souza

In this 12-minute video conference, Nigel and Anthony discuss:
• How the run-off in excess deposits supports net interest income and top-line revenue
• How reversals of credit loss provisions are a tailwind for earnings
• Why BMO is our favourite ban
• How will OSFI follow the FED’s decision to remove restrictions on dividends and buybacks for US banks 

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March 24, 2021
Railways: Golden Age for Freight Stocks
With Dan Fong

In this 10-minute video conference, Anthony and Dan discuss Canadian Pacific’s $29-billion merger with Kansas City Southern and why Dan is positive about it despite the stocks taking a hit yesterday after the companies announced the deal.
Highlights:
• They discuss the re-opening and ongoing re-stocking of the North American economy.
• Why the deal makes strategic sense. What are investors missing?
• What other deals do you see in the North American rail space?

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February 1, 2021
Telus International: Agents of Change
With Desmond Lau

Desmond’s 55-minute pre-IPO webinar covered:
•   Can TI’s strong culture be considered a moat? 
•   How does a compensation scorecard similar to Telus’ lead to high employee engagement and low attrition?
•   What logical adjustment to FCF does TI need to make that would reduce this metric?
•   Is a “material weakness” in internal controls cause for concern? 
•   Should investors be concerned about TI’s net debt?

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January 31, 2021
Manulife Financial: Mispriced and Misunderstood
With Nigel D'Souza
Click here to view the presentation slide deck

In this 14-minute webinar, Nigel discussed MFC’s strong capital position, limited COVID impact on its insurance business and a return of core investment gains. MFC’s invested assets are also well-diversified with high-quality holdings.

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January 28, 2021
2021: Investment Themes and Ideas Webinar
With Anthony Scilipoti and Darryl McCoubrey

In this 1-hour webinar, Anthony and Darryl provided an overview of some of the macro indicators that we’re watching closely as well as the firm's TOP PICKS.